03/12/2025 Market update
Today's stream of consciousness about SP500, Russell, metals and the yield curve
The S&P 500 is now just 1.20% below its all-time high, retesting previous channel support. Key implied-volatility measures remain near recent lows: VIX at 16.59, VVIX at 91.71, and skew at 59.71
The intensity of the volatility crush is what propelled the momentum score above 80 last Friday; now the trend reading has settled back to neutral (~50). At this juncture, the path forward is binary: we either grind higher or drop sharply. That makes it an attractive setup for selective downside bets.
