Very nice post! Agree on the Bitcoin overview, not sure if it has much more in the tank for now and ~20% more sounds about right imo, I am also expecting last big push with the altcoins (shitcoins lol) as Bitcoin dominance starts to drop
Altcoins are mainly a distraction and the reason why most people are losing money trading crypto. I’m actually expecting bitcoin dominance to recover during this leg up. Bitcoin needs to be stuck in a range in order for the altcoins to pump. That will be a good signal to take profit. But what do I know? This is just a big casino sir!
given all the money which is lost day by day on different exchanges, where does new money come from all the time?
I mean, a few outsized wrong moves, and you are out of the game. But from where are than again coming new people and new money, to replace the previos players (who lost most or all) and to replace money who chabbeled to the small mayority of players, that are acumulating most of the capital through time..?
The post is about a tactical trade, not expressing any view on long term value of bitcoin or cryptocurrencies at large.
For what it's worth I am uber bull bitcoin in the long term, bearish medium term and now short term after the failed rally. And uber bearish on alts for all time frames.
Now back to your comment:
(1) Q:given all the money which is lost day by day on different exchanges, where does new money come from all the time?
A: for each trade on an exchange, there is a winner and a loser. No money is lost nor disappearing into a black hole. Granted a hack or fraud can suck out value out of crypto, but the same is true for any exchange or public listed company. There is no value creation without trust. New money entering the crypto space has been wider and wider year after year, from liberal punk nerds in 2009 to Blackrock ETF and Sovereign countries in 2024. This is the natural path of an adoption curve for a new asset class.
(2) Q: a few outsized wrong moves, and you are out of the game...
A: are we talking bitcoin? I could say the same about OTC penny stocks, or leveraged x4 nasdaq etf, or short VIX ETFs, or buying 10 apartments on leverage in a developing country. It's not about the outsized moves, it's about sizing your investment. Volatility is not a bug, it's a feature. Just tune it down or up with leverage or not. Rule #1 for investment is to never be out of the game, but any asset is fair game. We take risk adjusted bets, and we limit our loss.
(3) Q: ... replace money who channeled to the small majority of players, that are accumulating most of the capital through time... ?
A: The ownership of bitcoin is more and more diversified, the amount of small balance addresses has been rising for the past decade. This is on chain data which can be checked. With now the ETF we have some distortion as the funds become whales. But overall concentration is decreasing, while at the same time asset concentration at large in the US is higher than ever, and not declining. Food for thought!
Very nice post! Agree on the Bitcoin overview, not sure if it has much more in the tank for now and ~20% more sounds about right imo, I am also expecting last big push with the altcoins (shitcoins lol) as Bitcoin dominance starts to drop
Altcoins are mainly a distraction and the reason why most people are losing money trading crypto. I’m actually expecting bitcoin dominance to recover during this leg up. Bitcoin needs to be stuck in a range in order for the altcoins to pump. That will be a good signal to take profit. But what do I know? This is just a big casino sir!
given all the money which is lost day by day on different exchanges, where does new money come from all the time?
I mean, a few outsized wrong moves, and you are out of the game. But from where are than again coming new people and new money, to replace the previos players (who lost most or all) and to replace money who chabbeled to the small mayority of players, that are acumulating most of the capital through time..?
The post is about a tactical trade, not expressing any view on long term value of bitcoin or cryptocurrencies at large.
For what it's worth I am uber bull bitcoin in the long term, bearish medium term and now short term after the failed rally. And uber bearish on alts for all time frames.
Now back to your comment:
(1) Q:given all the money which is lost day by day on different exchanges, where does new money come from all the time?
A: for each trade on an exchange, there is a winner and a loser. No money is lost nor disappearing into a black hole. Granted a hack or fraud can suck out value out of crypto, but the same is true for any exchange or public listed company. There is no value creation without trust. New money entering the crypto space has been wider and wider year after year, from liberal punk nerds in 2009 to Blackrock ETF and Sovereign countries in 2024. This is the natural path of an adoption curve for a new asset class.
(2) Q: a few outsized wrong moves, and you are out of the game...
A: are we talking bitcoin? I could say the same about OTC penny stocks, or leveraged x4 nasdaq etf, or short VIX ETFs, or buying 10 apartments on leverage in a developing country. It's not about the outsized moves, it's about sizing your investment. Volatility is not a bug, it's a feature. Just tune it down or up with leverage or not. Rule #1 for investment is to never be out of the game, but any asset is fair game. We take risk adjusted bets, and we limit our loss.
(3) Q: ... replace money who channeled to the small majority of players, that are accumulating most of the capital through time... ?
A: The ownership of bitcoin is more and more diversified, the amount of small balance addresses has been rising for the past decade. This is on chain data which can be checked. With now the ETF we have some distortion as the funds become whales. But overall concentration is decreasing, while at the same time asset concentration at large in the US is higher than ever, and not declining. Food for thought!
everything I wrote was meant for public markets in general, not only for BTC.